Dear ISIAM Members,
We are happy to release the first version of our “COVID-19: IISc Model”, which is based on a high-dimensional population balance equation. Unlike the existing (Compartment or Network) pandemic models, the proposed model predicts the distribution of infected population across the region, the age of the infected people, the day since infection, and the severity of infection, over a period of time. Moreover, the newly developed model incorporates the immunity, pre-medical history, effective treatment, point-to-point movement of infected population (e.g., by air, train etc), interactivity (community spread), hygiene and the social distancing of the population.
A scenario analysis (beta version) of COVID-19 pandemic in India using the proposed model can be found at https://cmg.cds.iisc.ac.in/covid/